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Original Research

Open Access

Japan alone is going backwards in time

  • D. Tanaka1,*,
  • Y. Ueda1,*,
  • A. Yagi1,*,
  • S. Nakagawa1
  • T. Takiuchi1
  • E. Miyagi2
  • T. Enomoto3
  • T. Kimura1

1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka

2Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Molecular Reproductive Science, Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa

3Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata (Japan)

DOI: 10.12892/ejgo4167.2018 Vol.39,Issue 5,October 2018 pp.724-726

Published: 10 October 2018

*Corresponding Author(s): Y. Ueda E-mail: ZVF03563@nifty.ne.jp

Abstract

Background: In Japan, the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare decided to temporarily suspend recommendation of HPV vaccination in June, 2013. As a result, disparities in HPV vaccination rates have occurred, depending on an unfortunate year of birth, leading to predicted disparities in HPV infection rate at the age of 20. Materials and Methods: In this study, we estimated the cervical cancer incidence as a ratio of lifetime HPV infection risk. We assumed that “the frequency of cervical cancer occurrence throughout the lifetime of young females who did not have opportunities (born in 1993) to be vaccinated could be defined as 1”. The lifetime risk of cervical cancer was assumed to correlated with the risk of HPV infection throughout a lifetime, which was assumed to correlate with the rate of experiencing sexual intercourse before HPV vaccination. Results: If recommendation for the vaccine does not restart until 2020, then the females born between 2000 and 2003 will likely remain unvaccinated, as they will be above the age for government-paid vaccination by the time vaccination restarts. If the vaccination restarts in 2020 and the cumulative vaccinated rate after resuming vaccination encouragement in girls is 70%, the estimated risk of cervical cancer among girls (born in 2008 or later) will decrease to 0.58. Supposing that HPV vaccination for girls aged 12-16 during encouraged suspension, in addition to female children aged 12-16 at the time of encouraged resumption that restarts in 2020, the risk of cervical cancer among females who were born in 2000-2003 will be lower than the scenario of HPV vaccination only for young females aged 12-16 that restarts in 2020. Conclusions: This cohort of young women, if a significant intervention is not begun soon, will present an increase in regards to the future onset of cervical cancers. We must all be aware that Japan alone is going backwards in time.

Keywords

HPV vaccine; Suspension of governmental recommendation; Cervical cancer risk; Birth year; Prediction.

Cite and Share

D. Tanaka,Y. Ueda,A. Yagi,S. Nakagawa,T. Takiuchi,E. Miyagi,T. Enomoto,T. Kimura. Japan alone is going backwards in time. European Journal of Gynaecological Oncology. 2018. 39(5);724-726.

References

[1] Hanley S.J., Yoshioka E., Ito Y., Kishi R.: “HPV vaccination crisis in Japan”. Lancet, 2015, 385, 2571.

[2] Ueda Y., Enomoto T., Sekine M., Egawa-Takata T., Morimoto A., Kimura T.: “Japan’s failure to vaccinate girls against human papillomavirus”. Am. J. Obstet. Gynecol., 2015, 212, 405.

[3] Morimoto A., Ueda Y., Egawa-Takata T., Yagi A., Terai Y., Ohmichi M., et al.: “Effect on HPV vaccination in Japan resulting from news report of adverse events and suspension of governmental recommendation for HPV vaccination”. Int. J. Clin. Oncol., 2015, 20, 549.

[4] Larson H.J., Wilson R., Hanley S., Parys A., Paterson P.: “Tracking the global spread of vaccine sentiments: the global response to Japan’s suspension of its HPV vaccine recommendation”. Hum. Vaccin Immunother., 2014, 10, 2543.

[5] Tanaka Y., Ueda Y., Egawa-Takata T., Yagi A., Yoshino K., Kimura T.: “Outcomes for girls without HPV vaccination in Japan”. Lancet Oncol., 2016, 17, 868.

[6] Onuki M., Matsumoto K., Satoh T., Oki A., Okada S., Minaguchi T., et al.: “Human papillomavirus infections among Japanese women: age-related prevalence and type-specific risk for cervical cancer”. Cancer Sci., 2009, 100, 1312.

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